A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
